Market Outlook

The Ides of March: Is the Market on the Brink of Collapse?16 min read

Comments (10)
  1. Bill Marcus says:

    Enjoy your well laid out thoughts very much, thank you. I would add a much more significant downside and destabilizing factor which has caused me to fully hit the sidelines and actually strategically at key moments build nimble large short positions. That is the vacuum of sound leadership which os accelerating in Trumps white house or what I them as the “Fox News” cabinet, which will be known historically as: the gang that couldn’t shoot straight. With virtually yes men, extremeism and a polarized cabinet of radicals helping direct the administration though rough waters, the odds of what you cite of some or many things going badly are for this experienced market timer significantly higher.

    For example China can afford a much longer trade war as its own economy and worldwide trade has increased better than most calculate and voters will quickly tire of increased inflation and static wage growth in a protracted war. And this war may also extend beyond tariffs into interest rates as the Chines are playing the long game.

    I am sure my points like this and others I would make would be debatable, but my main worry is the seriously increased sudden disparite event risk that an increasingly untethered Toxic Trump represents particularly to American markets. Volatility swings and rhetoric are only increasing and it would not surprise me to see a nearby day where professional fund managers decide political risk overshadows positive corporate earnings fundamentals to delever for a spell. That type of exit would result in a more significant perhaps sudden 10-15% setback in a matter of days or shorter.

    In closing never underestimate the veracity of sellers if they are given true concerns or poor decision making by an unstable impetuous extreme President

  2. scott hallenberg says:

    as you mentioned in today’s article small caps should do well in this coming period of uncertainty. i think nexoptic(nxopf) finally has all their ducks in a row and when the two products hit the market with the revolutionary flat lens the stock will be a home run. you all have many essays in the archives about what a game changer nexoptic will be.

  3. murray hopper says:

    Speaking of marijuana are you still holding stock in Emblem? You were certainly a BIG supporter when it first launched and it did do a quick rise out of the gate for about 2-3 weeks but has done nothing but disappoint since then . I sold off about 75% of other marijuana stocks I had to take some profit when they were high but have had to hold onto Emblem because I don’t want to sell at such a loss ( aprox 60%). For all its supposed strategic strengths it has failed to execute in any significant way. So what;s your take on them now?
    Super Mario

  4. Chuck Burton says:

    I look for one more sharp downturn in the US markets to well below the 200 day MA. This seems to be a recurring pattern after long upturns. Then possibly the final Melt-Up, followed by some kind of crash as interest rates gain strength, pulling money away from stocks, as the Equedia writer says. It may take a little longer than one quarter. Perhaps some tariff agreement may occur with China, and delay the inevitable collapse, or there may be some other factor. Make hay while the sun shines, but be ready to jump. Chinese stocks are likely to collapse to some degree along with American stocks before going on a tear as Chinese currency strengthens relative to the Dollar.

  5. Davette Martin says:

    Welcome to the Oakland A’s Stadium where the best seats are free. Either go out swinging or get knocked out. Without the US currency the World would be broke. Never feel bad after throwing a party and waking up to a mess. The sooner you clean it up you can relax and realize why your parents never let you throw parties. Its not the end of the world just a invite only type of party. Invite your equals and trustworthy people who pick up after themseleves and value your things as if it was theres. What you do to others shall be done to you. Always remember there is no honor amongst thieves. Its not the banks its the people running the banks. The men who formed financial institutions didn form them to steal from the people but to protect the people. To help store what we worked hard for our land. Theses 15 dollar hour bank tellers who use a building and its name as an excuse to steal and rob there own nation. Watch the money and well bounce back. Long as we allow jealous crooked people who need to be incarcerated to steal from anyone by using a building and name we will have a market crash. By the Grace of God we got Trump as the President cause he aint lettin that dollar go no where. He protecting our nation with all he got, real money. Support our President and rise up from these low life theives who call themself employees. Fall in line and follow suit and we shall rise as a nation and I am thankful he aint letting nobody leave with the money bag.Stay tunned

    1. Detective says:

      Amen to that! And don’t overlook the trillions to be brought back into the USA. That buys a lot of bonds.

  6. Mohan kilaru says:

    Excellent analysis of the current state of financial markets and world politics .I learned a lot from this very thoughtfully and analytical article .thank you

  7. Gini Hood says:

    I too got a lot from your article, Nicely rendered…. More than ever, we are in a crap shoot. This may be because of what consciousness is doing, as you say… baby boomers vs millenials…. the dying breed is the “old patriarchical guard” and the millenials are an “up and coming” breed of global thinkers. It just isn’t going to cut it, to wave the flag of me first in a global consciousness and long term, that kind of thinking WILL die. The new breed is a global, inclusive thinker that understands the “Real Art of the Deal” in this new day. It is clear, at least to me, that Trump is old school bully tactics in a world that passed by him, changing the rules, while he was out playing the field. The thing is, it looks susiciously like he is embroiled in conspiracy beliefs, that he must save the world from, while at the same time, not wanting to let go of his me first status, which explains his behavior to some degree. Hence the crap shoot. Economy wise, the pyramid shaped pie of global economics is going to have to be reshaped, and hopefully the world will stop its madness of greed need and realize, there really IS enough for all. For eons, every sigle day, masses of people get up every day, creating wealth out of thin air, by their labour. Follow that track. We only ever followed ” World debt clocks” watching for doomsday… Where is the forward movement “World Wealth clock” that would surely show the economics of an Earth that is richer than it has ever been? …. and at what cost… another war? Be careful of that thinking… it is what overlords use to fill their coffers… If the millenials are to change things, the pyramid pie will have to be squashed into an all inclusive round, like pies are supposed to be shaped. If the wealth must be at the top, then trickle down can work, if you put the pyramid upside down, and allow the tip to be the poorest at the bottom… in that, everyone is taken care of…. Bottom line, the millenials are thinking out of the box, through a whole new lens….It is a magnificent multi dimensional perspective, with ever increasing expansion… So, how to bet on stocks now? It is to become increasingly difficult, necessarily, as a kinder world needs to be born, if earth is to survive. Marijuana would be a great stock, either way lol… buy Canadian by 🇨🇦

  8. Detective says:

    You forgot to mention trillions of $US being repatriated. Maybe Trump is smart enough to know much of those $$ will soak up US Debt.

  9. MartinCot says:

    Hellow my name is MartinCot. Wery good article! Thx 🙂

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