Market Outlook

Is the Worst Over? A Look at the Numbers for COVID-1911 min read

Comments (21)
  1. Mark Zapp says:

    I agreee that the CFR is less than 2-8 % as published by looking at death rate/confirmed infected. I agree that there are asymptomatic and atypically symptomatic people. There is also a very high false negative number in testing. All of these will cause a much higher actual infected number. The current projections are that the actual number is 50-80 times the actual number and the actual CFR is 0.5% as you have stated. To establish herd immunity we need to have at least 50% of the population infected. The equation is (R0 – 1)/R0. R0 is the number of people each infected person can infect. If 50% of the US is infected (163M) multiplied by 0.5% implies 815,000 total deaths. Even if we get the death rate closer to the flu rate, the death rate still is very high (> 300,000 at 0.19%). The reason the death rate (so far) is lower is because of the actions taken. We have also learned a lot about caring for patients so this should help, but many institutions are still not learning from the rest of the world. I completely agree we need to open the economy in a smart way. It should not have closed as drastically as it did. High risk groups should have been protected and low risk groups should have had less restrictions. With the high incidence of false negative tests, testing for active virus should not be part of the equation for opening the economy. Antibody testing seems to make more sense, but that remains to be seen.

  2. Matt Wells says:

    Hey Ivan, long time reader. I wouldn’t say the the covid-19 symptoms are similar to the flu but rather to pneumonia. I agree with your whole article otherwise and doubled up on KL @ $32, went long SPA @0.08, will gold go up during the next big crash day?

    1. Equedia says:

      Thanks for the comment Matt. We say COVID-19 is similar to the flu in that both can cause Pneumonia – both have cold-like symptoms also.

      Here are flu symptoms from CDC:

      fever* or feeling feverish/chills.
      cough.
      sore throat.
      runny or stuffy nose.
      muscle or body aches.
      headaches.
      fatigue (tiredness)
      some people may have vomiting and diarrhea, though this is more common in children than adults.

      Here are COVID-19 symptoms from WHO:

      Common symptoms:
      fever.
      tiredness.
      dry cough.
      Some people may experience:
      aches and pains.
      nasal congestion.
      runny nose.
      sore throat.
      diarrhoea.

      Both can lead to Pneumonia.

      Literally the same symptoms – almost word for word.

  3. Diane Diehl says:

    Your comments and analysis has been mind since January and upset with the fear tactics of the media – but then, after all
    they care less about truth and more about getting the clicks and viewership – now with some shut downs and states slowly
    reopening I pray this is the case. However, I assembled some quotes from many top expert University Medical Teams and all of
    a sudden I was concerned at what my gut was telling me. Sample:Recent summaries of top medical teams: “we just do not understand this virus or what protocols for treatment ” ” no two cases are the same.” “We may never be able to develop a vaccine” … “social distancing may sound good but it actually is hurting our immune system to fight it, by not being exposed to other unrelated viruses and bacteria that man is exposed to daily for the purpose of strengthening our immunity” “now we are seeing children being infected”..” this is a virus which we may just have to deal with having no vaccine>””We do know upon symptoms, immediate within first few days give prophylactic drugs MAY help most – best chance for survival.””There are two strains, one deadly and the other more mild.”

    .Question: Since scientists are dumbfounded by the virus as behavior so unlike anything they have ever studied or seen before – then could it be a virus manipulated by the hands of man? “Don’t fool with mother nature, for she will rise up with a vengeance to destroy.”

  4. Diane Diehl says:

    Slight continuation: So this just may be a virus that will have to run its course – we have no control- only defense is a strong immune system – so in essence what I sadly am suggesting, we all may just have to go about our business – open up the country and do the best we can.
    Some will die – even our children – no one can escape – no cure, no vaccine, only one’s immune system. The concern is that the milder strain is preferable but we cannot control which strain will infect us – we are defenseless and so we just have to accept this new reality. (The hope again of course vaccine, but why so many top virologists speaking out now of their concern? Perhaps they know something we don’t know?

  5. KV says:

    The Global Elite love disasters that add more and more filthy lucer to their bloated bottom line

  6. Atanas says:

    I would guess as the so called scientists without enough data predicted 2 mill. deaths in US, I should be able to make my comments with possibility of been away more precise than them.
    These is a war by the ESTABLISHMENT from all over the world on the regular people. The objective is to crash the populist movements all over the world, take more control, establish a new world order where the people are a modern type of SLAVES.
    I am scare to try to envision the life of the Yonge and future generations, God help them.
    AD

  7. Frank says:

    Anyone that believes this virus is not a hoax and a ongoing strategy, the corporatists (fasciists), are using to set up a one world government that they completely control Is deaf,dumb,and, blind. There are a multitude of reports from qualified experts that the deaths are not proven to be caused by this hoax. One of the most dangerous people are the gates. They stand to make unthinkable amounts of money, from the chips and vaccines ,if they are not stopped. By all accounts gates is a ruthless ego maniac. At this stage we can only wait and see. Although I am encouraged by the protests that are happening here in the,USA.

  8. Stojan Ninkovic says:

    I sure wish there was an accountability body for fair journalism that will investigate the media reporting of covid19 . It seemed to me that the modelling projections of Ferguson were flawed from the start then he revised his numbers but by that time the horses had fled the barn. The financial connection between the WHO and Bill Gates is deeply troubling but of course the media will never investigate that because Gates is a media darling with his climate change activism. We are pawns in a bigger power struggle Trudeau is on the socialist side of things. If they had correct data to begin with they would have isolated the most vulnerable and allowed the economy to continue to work albeit slower. I think the suffering of the many seeking medical help now on hold, the toll on children and youth out of school, the family tensions and turning to alcohol and drugs to cope will be a story that needs to be told. This covid19 was overestimated in how many would die from it and underestimated in the troubles that the government response in a total lockdown will have inflicted on the citizenry. I’ve heard a lot from both sides of the debate including close doctor friends of mine. On balance my opinion is that they used a sledgehammer to kill a fly. Sure I’m taking every precaution advised for safety as my mother is 90 and lives in her own home. They need to unravel the lockdown quickly but monitor the seniors more carefully.

  9. Loy Lum says:

    I appreciate shared & contrarian points of view. In this case, there appears to be validity therein. So thank you for sharing. However, when it comes to gold, I see no benefit in owning it unless the owner is a dealer who buys wholesale & sells retail, at the expense of “investors” who buy it at retail & sell it at wholesale. I will look elsewhere for investing opportunity.

  10. anthony barbuto says:

    i saw an interview of Dr Buttar on some conservative news network. The doctor raised many issues. He is a board certified immunologist and has several clinics that fight disease that are caused by weakness of the immune system such as cancer and autism. He cites a lot of discrepancies between medical practice and what we are being told by the CDC, WHO and other gov’t agencies. He says that covid 19 is not acting like any known virus. He states that Dr Facuis involvement with BIG Pharma is very suspicious. And that Dr Fauci gave a grant of millions of dollars to china to study Coranavirus back in 2015. This was contrary to US policy at the time. Also Dr Fauci after shelling out this money stated that we should expect a coranvirus pandemic. How did he know? Was the pandemic man made for some ulterior motive? Its curious that Bill Gates has been putting money behind vaccine companies. Another link to Big Pharma. Is this whole pandemic a ruse to make big gov’t more intrusive in our lives and give more wealth to Big Pharma? Dr Buttar raises a good point when he says in this interview that there are two procedures that can be used to help people with breathing difficulties. These procedures are not being used and intubation, with all its risks is the method hospitals are using. Could this be part of the conspiracy just to make more intubation machines? Recent articles say some companies are making machines at 3-5X more money than before the pandemic.Also there are reports that current drug and vitamin therapies reduce the severity and length of the virus. These are EXISTING drugs and vitamins. Why is gov’t WAITING for a vaccine that may take 12-18 months to create and test? Why not look into existing drugs and vitamin regimens? any way he raises a lot of interesting points. I agree with a lot of what he says. Go to his web site and hear him for your self….His web site is askdrbuttar.com/nnn…See if his 40+ minuted interview is still on the youtube. Supposedly 2 of his five youtube videos have been removed becasue in those he state the cause of covid 19…No I am not going to tell you…see the videos and find out your self…

  11. haresh says:

    i have invested in gold lithium and uranium penny stock llike miilaanial lithium, advantage lithium . k-92 gold medas gold . and other gold exploration. i may require forther guidance when to sell and what to buy.

  12. Jeff says:

    If everyone who was hospitalized had died, what would the death rate be? If 100 times more citizens caught the virus because no-one took it seriously, and the hospitals were overrun, and our dedicated medical collapsed under the pressure what do you think would happen? Quite a different result I am guessing.

  13. Buy QTMM – Quantum Materials Corp makes Quantum Dots and for Coronavirus has implemented the QDX HealthID mitigation plan.

  14. Suzanne Gerard says:

    When you use initials such as “CFR” and “IFR”, it would help greatly if you would include readily findable definitions

  15. https://www.whtt.org/2020/04/09/covad-19-trigger-for-world-war-iii

    The above report, Covid-19, Launching Pad for WW-III
    by Charles E Carlson, April 9, 2020, draws much the same conclusion, but for somewhat different reasons.
    Sorry to agree with you!
    Author Carlson

  16. I agree with most of what you said. I am writing a book to share all I know about finance. I will not feel bad about protecting my finances and earning a boatload of money from the markets plunge. I still have money in an Annuity that I’m guessing dropped about 33% They only give one statement per year with the years final numbers (What a joke). Yesterday was the years best DAY of trading (for me) up big, and of course today was a loss (I took profit yesterday and this morning as it dropped. No complaints. Lets teach the world to use a simple in and out investment plan that anyone can execute so those that desire true financial freedom do not have to answer to anyone. Thank you for print the facts, they are getting harder and harder to come by, Joe

  17. Your article is worthless. What good is money (rich or poor) if you are dead?

  18. noIMspartacus says:

    “We have NEVER witnessed anything like this.

    It has been the single biggest economic shut down in history.

    It wasn’t caused by a market crash. It wasn’t caused by inflation or deflation. It wasn’t caused by a financial crisis. It wasn’t even caused by politics.” AHA HA HA HA HA…. you are funny….

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