Are Gold Stocks Leading Gold Lower?

Are gold stocks signalling the price direction of gold? We look to the charts for answers.
Are gold stocks signalling the price direction of gold? We look to the charts for answers.

Last week we noted that the weekly gold price chart was starting to drift lower and once again test the lower limit of the Ichimoku Cloud at the $1680 level. Naturally, this got our attention, and we continue to monitor the weekly chart for gold.

Today (Monday, August 23), we are taking a laser-like look at the weekly chart for the S & P TSX Global Gold Index. 

Unlike gold, which “bounced” off of the base of its Ichimoku Cloud, the TSX Gold Index has two consecutive weekly closes below the Cloud.

Multi-year support is at just below the Ichimoku Cloud base at the 270 level, as noted on the TSX Gold Index weekly chart. 

If further weakness is encountered for gold stocks, this level would be expected to provide support once again.

The TSX Gold Index is now trading at 288, a 2% gain for the day from last Friday’s close. However, this is still below the base of the Ichimoku Cloud, which is at 295.

Our concern for gold stocks is the same as for gold with respect to the price level relative to the base of the Ichimoku Cloud. 

Recall this chart from last week:

With the weekly chart for gold in mind, let’s continue examining the weekly chart for gold stocks. Here are some other technical indicators that may help us see why gold stocks are showing weakness despite gold making yet another forward move above $1800.

This chart gives a level to watch for OBV(89). OBV has been range-bound since mid-2020 and has remained above its 89-week moving average. A decline below this level would represent a concern that investors have determined that gold stocks are “priced in” for the gold price. Perhaps it might also signal coming weakness for gold.

We also note that CCI has established a level just slightly below its zero line that has remained in place since April of 2019. 

During this period, the TSX Gold Index rose from the 170 level to a high of 400, an impressive move.

Additionally, we see that the Average True Range, a reflection of volatility, has eased as prices continue to decline in a somewhat measured manner.

Summary and Wrap-Up

Some gold investors have long memories. I am one of them. In the exciting decade that spanned the early 1970’s to early 1980s, gold stocks routinely telegraphed future moves in the gold price. 

Strong demand for gold stocks would appear, volume would pick up, and gold stocks would start to rise. Then, not long afterward, gold would also continue to climb.

So, the question is: “Are we now seeing the same thing, but only this time in reverse?”

The focus remains on the weekly chart, and, as always, we await each new Friday close. We believe that we have the correct chart settings long enough to dispel unwanted “whipsaws” and provide good signals that can be relied upon for trading purposes. Our goal is to “get it right” as far as trade direction is concerned and be alert for trend changes.

Epilogue

It should be said that the gold chart remains resilient

So long as gold remains in or above the Ichimoku Cloud, the sober posture is to remain cautious, not negative.

Inflation is a common theme between the gold rally in the 1970’s/1980’s and today. However, numerous other considerations uniquely distinguish 2021 from 1971. As a result, old trading patterns between gold and gold stocks may not apply.

-John Top, the technical trader

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