Set aside your biases and hear me out.
That’s because what I am about to say may be hard to believe at first…
…that is until they become reality.
Back in early 2016, I said Donald Trump would become the President of the United States.
In return, I received hateful responses stating I was wrong.
Yet, today, Donald Trump is President.
Hold on to your hats because we’re about to go through extreme and radical global changes.
And the most important five years of this decade is about to unfold…
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Stock Market Worries? No Problem…
Take a good look at the global economy and financial markets.
The EU and its banking system are in trouble, China’s growth is slowing, and financial markets are exhibiting signs of exhaustion.
Furthermore, one of the steepest fiscal cliffs in history is coming later this year, unless Congress can agree on a new package.
It’s no wonder Citigroup, one of the biggest banks in the world, told clients earlier this month to lessen exposure to risky assets and prepare for a storm.
“We are only 15 minutes to midnight,” it said.
The bank even predicted that a recession would begin in December.
But we have heard statements like this, time and time again over the last ten years.
Take 2016, for example.
A bevy of macro indicators pointed to a global slowdown. Analysts were scared. People were afraid. And central banks were panicking.
The culmination of those sentiments led to a sharp drop in the stock market.
Only, it lasted all but a few weeks.
By mid-February, it was almost as if nothing happened.
What happened to the macro indicators that pointed to a global slowdown?
What happened to the scared analysts?
What happened to the panic?
In less than two years since that drop, the Dow climbed from under 16,000 to over 26,600.
So much for the global concerns…
But what caused things to turn around?
The answer is quite simple…
The Power of Central Bank Interference
Over the past decade, I have told investors to follow the actions of the Fed.
In short, the Fed’s (and other central banks) abilities to control the money supply have been the primary drivers of the global market.
They have done this by providing massive stimulus to the global economy.
And regardless of what anyone says, or the future consequences associated with central bank policies, it’s worked.
So much so that the same playbook they used in 2008 has worked many times over the last decade in avoiding a global crisis.
Unbeknownst to most, it worked again in 2016.
Between 2016 and up until the middle of 2018, the world’s biggest central banks unleashed a flurry of money into the global financial markets – more than ever in the history of our modern financial system.
Take a look.
Here’s the EU, via the St. Louis Fed:
And here are the top central banks in the world together, via Reuters:
Their actions once again stabilized economic growth and sent the prices of stocks and other assets such as real estate soaring.
The problem is that without central bank intervention, the markets immediately come to a halt.
And that’s precisely what happened last year.
When stimulus stopped in mid-2018 (as noticed by the downturn in the above chart), the effects were immediately felt.
Starting in October 2018, the S&P 500 fell from over 2900, down to just 2351 on Christmas Eve.
“The economy is strong,” they told us.
“Global growth is picking up steam.”
And they were right – only they never emphasized that the primary reason things looked good was because they were propped up with stimulus – a record amount of it.
Without support, the market sank.
So the Fed went back to the same playbook and did what it does best: stepped in and interfered by telling the world it wouldn’t raise rates.
And the market immediately rebounded.
The question now is if the Fed and other central banks around the world will continue to ease pressures by maintaining low rates and injecting further stimulus.
China has already stepped on the gas, and I suggest they will do more.
And despite announcing to the world that it would end its €2.6 trillion (US$2.95 trillion) quantitative easing (QE) bond-buying program in January 2019, the EU is already delivering a fresh round of money.
“The European Central Bank delivered a fresh round of monetary stimulus in a bid to shore up the weakening economy as it cut its growth forecast by the most since the advent of its quantitative-easing program four years ago.
ECB President Mario Draghi said the euro-zone economy will now expand only 1.1 percent this year, a drop of 0.6 percentage point from forecasts just three months ago. A package of assistance from new loans for banks to a longer pledge on record-low rates is intended to expand existing stimulus, he said.”
If the Fed does indeed continue to intervene, it has more than enough firepower to prop the markets up until next year – especially since the other two economic superpowers, the EU and China, are already doing it.
And given that next year is an election year, President Donald Trump will undoubtedly look to monetize even more debt. He is, after all, a staunch supporter of borrowing money at low rates.
This is where the radical changes begin.
Trump to Win in 2020
The Democrats and the far leaning left have tried everything in their power to remove President Trump from office.
They have tried sexual harassment allegations. They failed.
They even tried to involve the FBI. Again, they failed.
And every time they failed, Trump has garnered more support.
Heck, he just raised another $1 million for his upcoming campaign as a result of the Mueller debacle.
Via the New York Post:
“The Mueller report put another $1 million in President Trump’s campaign coffers.
“The release of the full Mueller report directly led to the campaign raising more than $1 million,” Trump campaign COO Michael Glassner told The Post.”
In fact, Trump has already garnered more campaign funding than his top two Democrat rivals combined:
“The Trump campaign had already reported a $30.3 million haul for the first quarter of the year, nearly equal to the donations of top Democratic rivals Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris, who brought in $18.2 million and $12 million respectively.”
If President Trump gets his way with the fiscal cliff and the markets can sustain this exuberance, my bet is he will win the 2020 US elections and remain as President of the United States for another four years.
But that’s not all.
I suspect he will not only win the popular vote, but he will convincingly take the Electoral College.
In other words, Donald Trump will not only lead the Free World for another term, but he will be free to do as he pleases without much challenge.
And that means radical changes are coming.
Prepare for Radical Change
After Trump wins, he is going to go berserk.
Not only will he likely control the entire government, but he will unleash a new fiscal policy that will change everything.
He will lower taxes on the rich and those who are job creators; he will give huge incentives to businesses in the U.S. via tax breaks; he will borrow a boatload of money and begin a massive infrastructure spending spree which will create jobs.
Heck, he may even convince the Fed to do QE4 – all of which will lead to a bigger bubble.
After all, he will have nothing to lose – there’s no more election to win.
In other words, he will do whatever it takes to prop up the economy and the stock market.
But here’s the thing…
The Champion or Fall Guy?
If the market can hold off until the US elections next year, we may see yet another burst of enthusiasm in stocks.
The rich will certainly get richer under Trump, but he will create more jobs and make many blue-collared Americans happy.
For investors, the goal over the next couple of years is to make as much money as possible in the market before it comes crashing down. Because given the amount of exuberance in the market and the credit bubble that has been brewing for nearly a decade, things will break at some point.
And that some point will likely come during Trump’s last couple of years in office (if he wins) because he will unleash a fury during the first two.
But why? Why will things come crashing down if Trump will do whatever he can to make American great again?
The answer lies in the Letters I wrote back in 2016 and 2017.
From 2016, before Trump became President:
“For all we know, Trump, the master of the deal, may have already struck a deal with the bankers and politicians.
But as we know right now, Trump is anti-establishment and anti-globalization.
If Trump is elected under that presumption, we’re going to see the building blocks of the Establishment and globalization come under attack, and they won’t like it.
They will fight back, leading to major conflicts including riots, protests, and potentially even war and assassination attempts.
It is quite possible that the Establishment might even be allowing Trump to succeed in order to cause chaos to show the people that the Establishment is a necessity once all hell breaks loose.”
Note the last sentence.
“…What I write may be difficult to grasp at first, but as time passes, the light will shine.
Just keep in mind that throughout American history, whenever the Establishment has been challenged, it has always been followed by bear markets and economic contractions.”
Not the last sentence, again.
I then wrote in 2017, in my Letter, “Can Trump Stop the Establishment?“:
“Trump is directly attacking the Establishment.
In his inauguration speech, he directly focused on bringing the power back to the people; directly attacking and calling out the Establishment:
“For too long, a small group in our nation’s capital has reaped the rewards of government while the people have borne the cost. Washington flourished, but the people did not share in its wealth. Politicians prospered, but the jobs left, and the factories closed.
The establishment protected itself, but not the citizens of our country. Their victories have not been your victories. Their triumphs have not been your triumphs. And while they celebrated in our nation’s capital, there was little to celebrate for struggling families all across our land.
… For many decades, we’ve enriched foreign industry at the expense of American industry; subsidized the armies of other countries, while allowing for the very sad depletion of our military. We’ve defended other nations’ borders while refusing to defend our own.
…And spent trillions and trillions of dollars overseas while America’s infrastructure has fallen into disrepair and decay. We’ve made other countries rich, while the wealth, strength and confidence of our country has dissipated over the horizon.
One by one, the factories shuttered and left our shores, with not even a thought about the millions and millions of American workers that were left behind. The wealth of our middle class has been ripped from their homes and then redistributed all across the world.”
Backing his words with action, Trump has already signed a whole range of executive orders that challenges the very essence of the Establishment.
He’s already made an executive action to withdraw the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership – a partnership often viewed as a globalist policy. He’s frozen the hiring of new Federal employees in attempts to control Big Government. He’s done a lot in just a week.
And according to the New York Times, Trump is about to attack the Establishment head-on:
“The Trump administration is preparing executive orders that would clear the way to drastically reduce the United States’ role in the United Nations and other international organizations, as well as begin a process to review and potentially abrogate certain forms of multilateral treaties.
The first of the two draft orders, titled “Auditing and Reducing U.S. Funding of International Organizations” and obtained by The New York Times, calls for terminating funding for any United Nations agency or other international body that meets any one of several criteria.
Those criteria include organizations that give full membership to the Palestinian Authority or Palestine Liberation Organization, or support programs that fund abortion or any activity that circumvents sanctions against Iran or North Korea.
…The draft order also calls for terminating funding for any organization that “is controlled or substantially influenced by any state that sponsors terrorism” or is blamed for the persecution of marginalized groups or any other systematic violation of human rights.
…The second executive order, “Moratorium on New Multilateral Treaties,” calls for a review of all current and pending treaties with more than one other nation. It asks for recommendations on which negotiations or treaties the United States should leave.
The order says this review applies only to multilateral treaties that are not “directly related to national security, extradition or international trade,” but it is unclear what falls outside these restrictions.
For example, the Paris climate agreement (Globalist policy) or other environmental treaties deal with trade issues but could potentially fall under this order.”
Trump is cleaning house, and he has already purged the State Department. Many believe the CIA is next.
And it’s no secret that the CIA has attacked Trump leading up to his inauguration.
Just remember this: the last U.S. President to challenge the Establishment, the Shadow Government, and even the CIA, was the beloved John F. Kennedy.
President Kennedy did many of the things Trump is attempting to do today: Expose the shadow government, eliminate the CIA, ordered a complete withdrawal from Vietnam (Trump has boldly announced that he will bring back troops and not interfere with other nations’ internal affairs), and signed Executive Order 11110 – one that would return the responsibility of the money supply back over to the U.S and out of the Fed.
And we all know what happened to JFK following his actions.
…With Trump in power, the short-term success of America will be apparent*.
(*we’re seeing this today.)
However, the success of his policies means a gradual rise in inflation, and thus, interest rates.
Like the events leading up to the Great Depression, we have been exposed to a prolonged all-time low level of interest rates. This has led to irrational exuberance in the stock market which could lead to a dramatic depression when the bubble pops.
We have been so accustomed to low-interest rates that when interest rates tighten, it could spell doom for many Americans who are already stifled with debt. It could also spell doom for many emerging markets whose debt is mainly comprised of dollar-denominated assets.
And believe me, interest rates will rise in 2017*.
(*and they did.)
Now that Trump is in power, he could become the fall guy for the Establishment’s policies.
In fact, half of America has already been set up to blame Trump for every negative event that will happen over the next four years.
They will blame Trump for a stock market crash, and not for the irrational exuberance brought on by low interest rates and the loose monetary policies of the last decade – the same policies that led the U.S. to the Great Depression.
As Trump’s policies begin to see success, the Fed will likely raise rates and contract the money supply. They will need an excuse to do it, and what better excuse than a rise in inflation caused by Trump policies.
When this happens, another Great Depression could occur. Of course, following that, we’ll need to be “saved.”
And who better to “save” us than the Establishment.
Remember, the aftermath of the Great Depression was the creation of a monolithic central bank with complete control over the U.S. monetary system.
This time, it’s global. Can Trump stop it?”
As Trump attempts to make America great again, he will flood the media with his accomplishments. But in the end, it will be the central banks, and more importantly the Fed, who will truly control what happens.
Let’s face it: most of our current generation has no idea of how the global financial system works. They have no idea how certain actions affect the economy. They have no idea who is really in power. What the Fed gives, the Fed can take.
And the Fed has given a lot.
Our generation is consumed with laying blame to others. And when shit hits the fan, they will blame Trump – he is the perfect fall guy, after all.
They won’t blame cheap money. They won’t blame debt. They’ll blame the one in charge.
And the person in charge will likely be Donald Trump.
It won’t just be lower taxes and massive spending that Trump will be responsible for.
That’s because, in order to correct the current global debt bubble, something massive will have to take place – something no one will be able to grasp until it happens.
During this time of radical change, countries around the world will be afraid and begin to defend themselves from the fall out of the credit bubble.
Unfortunately, massive global resets have only really occurred as a result of war.
Are we on that path?
In the next edition of the Equedia Letter, I’ll give you insight into what is really happening behind the scenes.