The Shocking Truths About High Frequency Trading

In this letter, Ivan Lo reveals the Shocking Truths About High Frequency Trading, how it affects our markets, how and why it works, and the dangers involved

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“There is no such thing as bug free software. If you are an investor, learn how to hedge.” – Mark Cuban

The Shocking Truths About High Frequency Trading

Manipulation. Rigging. Computer Traders. High Frequency Trading. Hackers. Your Money.

All of these words fit together in one category: the stock market.

For many years, I have talked about how the stock market really works; how it has and always will be manipulated.

The movies you see — Wall Street, Boiler Room, and Margin Call — are all movies based on events that have happened before, in one form or another. The only difference is instead of big name actors, its big name bankers, traders, and politicians – we are the extras, the victims.

If you think that manipulation in the stock market doesn’t exist, then I urge you to read the rest of this letter; If you already know it does, and even have some real-life experiences you want to share, then follow the link below and make a comment.

Click Here to Comment on High Frequency Trading

I am here to present the facts, but it is up to you to connect the dots. In future letters, I will write up direct examples of manipulation in the stock market.

Manipulation has always been a part of the stock market game. Whether it was insider information, or price action manipulation via large sell or buy orders, it was done in a way that regular investors actually stood a chance because they could see the price action happening and react accordingly.

But technology and the advent of high-frequency computer trading/algorithmic software have changed the way the stock market is now being manipulated.

High Frequency Trading

“The world is literally on the brink of a financial collapse and we have software programs running and gauging our day-to-day markets. It’s a scary thought.

Software programs have bugs. At any given time, the wrong input our output could cause catastrophe. I am sure everyone has had their computer crash or had some kind of weird malfunction with a software program before. Imagine when it happens with software trading programs that control billions of dollars worth of wealth – i.e. flash crashes.

Current data shows that more than 70% of all equity volume traded in the US markets is now as a result of these algo-traders (the SEC cites 50% or more.) In a market where retail investors are holding onto cash, this percentage may be even higher. That means retail investors who have the ability to gauge economic factors are no longer controlling market sentiment; computers do.
If history tells us that the stock market is forward looking by 6 months, then computer programs are now dictating our future.”

The Lack of Patience

Investors are growing more impatient everyday, turning the stock market into a casino, rather than a platform to help companies grow.

According to Business Insider, investors now hold stocks on average for only five days; compare that with the eight years in the 1960s.

If business performance dictates how a stock should react, than companies are now only given five days to succeed. After all, that’s the average time investors are holding stocks now.

But if you think that’s a short time frame, wait until you hear how long the software programs – the same ones that represent nearly 70% of all volume in the U.S. – hold stocks for.

On average, high frequency traders (HFT) hold stocks for no more than 16 seconds:

“Investors have turned into day traders. Day traders have turned into algo-traders, who not only make trades in 10 milliseconds or less, but also typically hold stocks for no more than 16 seconds. The days of watching the ticker tape to get a sense of where a stock is headed is over.” –The Equedia Letter: A Nuclear Threat, Jan. 2013.

Not only are stocks being held for no more than 16 seconds, the software’s decision to buy or sell a stock is made in less than 10 milliseconds. Some say it’s as fast as half a millionth of a second – that’s more than a million times faster than the human brain can process a decision.

That may sound fast, but how fast does it really sound?

The Speed of Sound

The guys over at Nanex track every single market transaction. They provide hundreds of charts that show just how fast the market moves. Their research clearly shows trading speeds that no human will ever experience.

Looking at the charts is one thing, but how about hearing them?

Take a listen to this:

The sounds you hear are the trades made for one stock, within that given time period. A musical note was assigned to every buy or sell order on that stock. The pitch is determined by the price of the order; the higher the pitch, the higher the price.

Those sounds are clearly too fast for us to track.

Here is the same clip, slowed down:

So how can the average trader or technical chart expert make smart bets when they’re competing with a program that can make decisions faster than any human ever could?

These programs are also used to trade stocks up, or down, by giving the optical illusion that a stock is being bought with momentum, or sold with force. It’s essentially rigged market making.

That is why it is so hard for technical traders, and those who follow the ticker tape, to get a grasp of where price action will lead a stock.

Why the Need for Speed?

Arbitrage. By selling stocks practically as soon as they buy them, the high-frequency traders can manipulate small price differences in the stock market.

Faster trades equal more money. That is why the algorithms and the technology used in HFT are always being upgraded to work faster.

In HFT, it doesn’t matter how much money is moving in each direction per trade, it’s the amount of trades the program can make in a split second that’s important.

Think of it this way:

If I can make 10,000 trades every second and arbitrage $0.0001 cents per trade, that equals to $1 every second, $60 every minute, and $3,600 in just one hour.

What may seem like worthless fractions of a dollar, soon becomes much more. Because of this arbitrage advantage in speed, HFT algorithms are continually being upgraded to analyze both short and long-term trends, as well as tiny momentary blips in trading.

But over the years, their analyses have been upgraded to include news and sentiment using many different forms by scanning buzzwords from sources such as Google trends, and even twitter feeds.

The Dangers of High Frequency Trading

Late April, I tweeted how the Associated Press’ Twitter account was hacked:

One simple hacked Tweet, sent via The Associated Press’ (AP) Twitter account, was enough to bring down Wall Street for nearly 10 minutes on April 23. Here is the fake tweet sent via AP’s Twitter account:

Breaking: Two Explosions in the White House and Barack Obama is injured
Within seconds, the Dow fell 143 points as a result. So were fear-induced investors the reason for the sell-off? Could investors have possibly reacted so quick to the Tweet? Did everyone have their Twitter accounts open at the same time, just as the hacked Tweet was sent?
Not according to AP:

“Tuesday’s plunge wasn’t really due to a bunch of anxiety-ridden, eager-to-sell human investors. It was largely the fault of supercomputers pre-programmed to buy and sell stock automatically based on, among other things, buzzwords they find in news items.”

The Syrian Electronic Army

A group claiming to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad took responsibility for the attacks, tweeting:

Ops! @AP get owned by Syrian Electronic Army! #SEA #Syria #ByeByeObama.

The Syrian Electronic Army also claim to have been behind similar attacks on the twitter feeds of Agence France Presse news agency, Sky News Arabia, Al-Jazeera mobile and CBS News.

The question is not how, but why?

Was it merely computer hacktivists making a statement? Or was it a calculated plan of attack to make millions, perhaps billions, shorting the markets to fund a global war?

The Financial Electronic War

I talked about the financial war before; how major battles are no longer fought with just guns and ammunition, but rather currency and information technology,

The scary part is that it doesn’t take thousands of men to fight, or win, these wars. All it takes is a few smart hackers and computer geniuses to take down the world’s biggest financial systems and send an economy to its knees.

So while banks and other financial systems, as well as government organizations such as the Pentagon, have dedicated security teams and apparently enough power to fight hackers, other portals may not.

The financial world, via high frequency trading software and other platforms, is now so intertwined with social media and other online accounts that hacking basic social media accounts and feeds could easily cause a major financial disaster.

So while the Pentagon or Wall Street may have enough (that’s a BIG “may”) security to prevent a hack from occurring, does Twitter have the same type of security in place? Especially when many of these passwords are easily hacked by a 10-year old computer whiz?

SEC Powerless

Via Huffington Post, April 2012:

“The Securities and Exchange Commission does not currently have the ability to fully monitor what, by most accounts, makes up a majority of the stock trading activity in the United States, according to former SEC lawyers.

…The SEC does not publicly offer its own estimate of the percentage of the overall equity market that high-frequency trading accounts for. But in congressional testimony in 2010, SEC Chair Mary Schapiro said, “By any measure, [high-frequency trading] is a dominant component of the current market structure and is likely to affect nearly all aspects of its performance.

…The commission doesn’t have the ability to monitor high-frequency trading, not just in terms of sophistication; it doesn’t have the cold hardware to keep up,” said Khinda, now co-head of the SEC enforcement practice at Steptoe & Johnson in Washington. “It doesn’t have the tools. It’s only just begun to assemble them.”

It’s clear that HFT cannot be policed. There simply aren’t in enough resources to fight the battle against these supercomputers. When you consider that these computers control billions of dollars in trade, without regulation, that’s a scary thought.

But security and regulation isn’t the only thing you need to worry about.

Battle of the Machines

One of the things that you rarely hear about is the competition between many of these software-trading platforms.

Not only are these supercomputers programmed to analyze market feeds and trading patterns, they are also programmed to sabotage each other by creating false price action and fake market orders; in other words, pure manipulation.

These computers not only make trades in milliseconds, but they also fake them in milliseconds.

Trade orders are often sent and cancelled just to throw a kink into competing programs. Many of the trades are made just to flood the market and trick other computers (or investors) into thinking that a trend may be occurring in a particular stock, when no trend really exists.

Consider the facts

HFT’s are programmed to read feeds and analyze data, but they can’t verify if the data is true or false. This was clearly evident in the AP Twitter hack scenario.

And because speed is the primary game of these traders, building a system that has the ability to verify the credibility of certain news feeds doesn’t make sense because verification takes too much time.

That means scenarios like the AP Twitter hack that sent the market down are likely to happen again.

The SEC has already said there’s nothing they can do. If there’s nothing they can do now, then what happens when these machines get smarter and the use of their systems grow even bigger? And believe me, they’re growing bigger.

The Growth of High Frequency Trading

There’s already hundreds of millions-worth of underwater cables being built in the Atlantic Ocean to facilitate faster trades between Wall Street and the London Stock Exchange. In the last five years, the use of HFT has grown exponentially.

Take a look at how much these software programs have taken over our markets.

Here is an animated picture by Nanex that shows the growth of HFT:

(refresh page to start from beginning of animation)

High Frequency trading is a legal way to hack the stock market. Not only do these programs already make the majority of trades in the stock market, but their use is growing and they’re constantly evolving. Due to the inability to monitor and regulate the use of HFT, many risks exist. As long as that risk exists, hackers, thieves, and terrorists can gain control of our market and steal billions of dollars from our pockets.

HFTs are not only being used in the U.S., but everywhere around the world, including Canada. Sadly, regulations in Canada only add more support to the destruction of our market. An example of this is the “downtick rule,” which I’ll explain more about next week.

A Massive Bubble

When capital is cheap and easy, bubbles exist. Combine these bubbles with HFT and we’re creating one of the biggest bubbles the stock market has ever seen.

Just take a look at the dotcom bubble or the recent real estate bubble. What led to their crash? Easy money…

Never has there been a time in our history where there is so much easy money, than right now.

Until next time,

Ivan Lo
The Equedia Letter

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Comments 144
  1. HIGH FREQUENCY TRADING and DERIVATIVES are stopping ordinary inestors from investing.The manipulation is making it like being in a casino.I think they should be banned.

    1. That’s the problem. It represents too much money and volume. Banning it would mean stopping the crook bankers who already control everything. It will never get banned

    2. Its not stopping anyone from investing. People are idiots. they see the stock market rise and they buy stocks. they see it fall and they sell. people tend to do what the media tells them to do and the majority of them fall for it. HFT or no HFT

  2. How much money does it take for one of these software programs to run? I know companies like GETCO sell their software, but who buys it and how is it used?

    1. Doesn’t take much money. They sell to brokerages. But I guess u would have to own a brokerage to make effective use of it

  3. I’ve written Flaherty too.

    There’s a longer list of people who have tries to draw attention to what’s happening. I’ve covered this a number of times on my blog, I’m an activist with the people, written the minister of finance with data to support my conclusions about the outcome of HFT, tried to expose the security flaw our government is ignoring, and challenged the securities regs to look at hard data.

    Clearly, more people need to speak up. This is a horrendous security breach waiting to happen. Yes, buying physical gold is our only protection but then it also means being deprived of the right to make sound bets with proper DD. I like mining for example. I can do really good DD on the projects. Because of HFT and how our Canadian Regs changed the rules for the benefit of the HFT guys I can no longer invest there on sound principles. Pounds in the ground, quality, etc.

    Returning to the breach. What if there were computer generated attack schedules? Add that to the already powerful machines and you can see where that could go. They are hacking with impunity after all. By comparison, the chess computers have swiftly out paced the humans. You’d be shocked to see where that’s going to be in just 5 years from now.

    I know that if I were programming for one of these companies I would use some pretty wicked ideas too. I would be looking at every disruptive tactic I could think of. Combined with my understanding of the macro picture I would be an awesome centaur. (Human machine duo in chess. For those who don’t know, they are nearly unbeatable).

    There is one solution. Force trades to have a 1 second duration.

    1. Great analogy with Chess machines. For Canadians, its not so much the HFT, but rather regulation that has caused the market to shrink. The big banks are taking over. I hope Mr. Lo goes over that in more detail with his audience. Something every one should know.

  4. My English is not so well to understand all good.
    My language is Dutch.
    Looks interesting.

    Kind regards

  5. A significant transaction tax would stop HFT nonsense. I believe it’s called a Tobin Tax.

    Shorting is also very destructive. Naked or legal makes no difference. Re-hypothecation too.

    Too bad investors & the public are such sheeple or they would start by cancelling subscriptions to all media outlets. Starve the beast. Then maybe we would have some real choice in who we vote for. Wake up folks.

    1. You cant stop shorts unless all trades were done at one brokerage house. Thats the problem. every brokerage firm has their own monitoring, it is impossible for the regulators to monitor every trading house/brokerage to see if they actually have stock for settlement. People can also borrow stock within the firm. its as this article says, “the stock market is rigged.”

      Taxing transactions won’t work either because the exchanges make money that way. the more transcations they do, the more the exchanges make. Why would they allow that kind of tax?

      It should simply be illegal for a computer to make computerized trades where the orders are not by a person. simple.

  6. My distaste for the markets and banks!

    After 2008 when the Bank of America hit its bottom. I bought 10000 stocks. Was sent a letter by BoA stating that my shares would be honored if I agreed to not sell my stock until 2015. TD Bank then somehow lost my stocks and has absolutely no recollection of these events. Since then they lost all of my stock in a digital snafu.

    I have wrote the ombudsman at TD Bank Group

    Sally David

    Customer Administrative Officer Office of the Ombudsman P.O Box 1 Toronto-Dominion Centre Toronto, ON M5K 1A2

    She does not give a FAK. Came up with some jargon that covers there butts and losses my money in the form of shares.

    Furthermore TD Bank will only offer options trading if pay for their premium platform. Every other bank. Free! But increased transaction pricing.

    Not a happy Canadian banking customer! Giving up on the manipulation!

    Computers are the new 1%

    1. welcome to the world of computer wealth. when you consider things that way, gold and hard assets really do seem much better. Eventually, once people start losing more paper wealth, they will realise what paper really is worth – no more than the trees they are printed on.

    2. Canadian anything has always been bad. Our tv, banks, fees are far higher than the US, which makes it so hard for us to compete in any market! If it weren’t for out resources, we would have nothing

      1. I think there are a lot of misconceptions about HFT. It is important to consider that the volume of HFT is indeed high, but holding time is very short. Accordingly, HFT determines prices in the second and minutes time-frame, but not at hours, and definitively not at days or years time-frames. In the twitter example or other HFT-induced crashes you can clearly see that they last very short. For an investor or a trader this means more noise for the short-term time-frame if he is not able to predict behavior of HFT-computers. However, normally he does not particular care about this time frame and this noise is anyway limited to the range the prices moves within seconds and minutes (which is in most situations very low <1%). For the rare case he captures a moment that prices are moving more than 1% within a minutes, and this move is induced by HFT, it is important to mention that the HFT-induced crashes/bubbles have a certain price dynamic, which builds up over seconds and possible minutes. Human mind may need 500 ms for a decisions, but this is enough time to recognize a strong price dynamic towards one direction and to adapt behavior accordingly. HFT-induced crashes, last only a short time, only as long as another HFT-computer needs to detect the strong market move an react (buy). Thus, HFT-trading will maintain to move prices at a very time frame mostly within a narrow range, but traders and investors move prices at the long run, and understanding their behavior as well as their economic environment, will kept to be a profitable strategy.

        1. Mike, I think you are right but so very wrong at the same time. HFT programs are programmed to also battle each other. So where one may try to move the gap up, the other down. While they move trades in the short term, they do this non stop throughout the whole day. So if they are doing this ongoing throughout the day, their millisecond reactions and narrow time frame you talk about now stretches even further. Furthermore, these programs are created by humans, which means a human can program the HFT’s to buy the stock up and market-make. Go to GETCO’s website and you will see that part of their HFT programs do exactly that, make a market. Theres a lot more to HFT than people believe and its not as simple as just the split second decision making that you’re emphasizing.

  7. For most investors hft is totally irrelevent. True there is more volitility, but for those who trade in days or weeks r months, we can make or lose money the same way.
    You should not imply hft is the reason for all of the reduction of the hold time. 50 years ago to trade a stock we had to look at the papers over a long period then phone a broker , now we logon to site, look at a chart and trade in minutes.
    All this crying the sky is falling!
    The sky is just changing colors

    1. No human can make a trade in milliseconds. No human can trade and buy a stock within 16 seconds – the average holding time for stocks. The sky is changing colours but when more than 50% + of the trades are made by computers, thats the issue.

      You’re an idiot for thinking the way you do. No one is crying but to say that the market cant be rigged by these trading machines is absurd

  8. I understand that the rate of taxation on investments is very dependant on how much risk is involved. HFT is 100% safe and therefore should be taxed at the highest investment rate, i.e. government bond and GIC taxation levels.

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  16. Remember than Prime Minister Brian Mulroney brought in the legislation to permit the Banks into the Investment arena about 1986. This was supposed to improve the investment community by creating 5 legs instead of the original 4. They promised no brokers would loose there jobs. End of Story. There are now 5 Banks doing all the investment and insurance business in
    Canada. Little guys dont count. HFT is a highbred of the banks control of your will. Remember how nice it was to put a bid in and actually see it on the board. Now all public bids and offers are shorted buy the money grubbers. The long bear / down price movements are a result of this short trading. The only way the banks make money are in public trade commissions and short sale cover trades. Fear is something the banks play on. Day traders and others with the intent to make a few bucks during the week is likely to go home with a potato for supper. Some time ago I tried to trade around this HFT. It was very difficult to make $500 trade profits. (due to the small spread). I than changed to buying large positions in stocks $50,000 to $100,000 in any company. This worked and actually made back those small loses during the year. The problem is the time spent doing it does not equate to the reward. Just a waste of time.
    If you look at a short squeeze, like Y.T (Yellow Media Limited) you will see the low $5.00 a year ago to $22.00 today. This is all on a short squeeze. When the shareholders as a group refuse to sell sufficient shares to cover the open short market on the Stock.
    This is when money grubbers HFT software looses them money. Without human interaction, a short position can grow sufficiently fast. This is with the expectation that the higher prices will produce the result of ligitimate shareowners selling into their short cover position. This company was reorganized and the debtors were given millions of shares for debt. If you were a debtor now investor, would you sell at a lose or even hang on to the reins.
    The problem is when there is sufficiently high liquidity in a stock (free shares trading daily because no floor trader / retail traders wants to hold them) invites a falling stock price. They will sell to each other until the dumb investor thinking to actually invest for say a month or year etc. actually buys up the liquidity. No more ligitimate sellers. This forces a rebound of about 10 to 20 % creating a bottom on the chart. As long a fear does not arise on the stock, it will flatten out to December when most short positions are covered, certainly before March 30 tax year end for brokerage houses.
    This is what a sheep is dealing with; pigs at the trough.
    I decided to take it easy for my last 10 – 20 years. I have bot into Horizons Enhanced Income Gold Producer ETF. “HEP.TO” Now I have nothing to do except receive my distribution monthly which has varied between 1% to 2% monthly. All its investments are in the highest capitalized gold producers. Dividends and option call writing revenue is paid out monthly. If gold goes up the NAV will rise the same as gold go down NAV will decrease. I look at this way,I invested in brain power. The very ones that are interfering with my trading, I hired them to make me money. It is not for sale for the short term. Manipulation will not prevent me from earning likely more than 20% annually after tax. I know gold will eventually go up so really have no fear that I will loose any money on this strategy.
    The assets in the ETF are basically washed out, even gold at $1200 is less than 10% from any bottom or has bottomed. This strategy would not be available if it werent for ETF’s. Not all ETF are safe in my mind. As they can be manipulated daily although only on a very short term. A trend is your friend my friend. Get on the right side of it. Wait for the train to pull out. Than wait for the uptick. At some point the fear will be gone in the mining stocks. I believe now is a life time chance to invest in Gold, Silver but only that which monies can stay in for a couple years or longer. The real world is that eventually all land will have a mortgage held by a bank. In the real world, the government will continue to borrow because they do not produce anything you want to buy. The government is a glass house which eventually will break apart when the weight of worthless digital or otherwise monetarily denominated wealth collapses.

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  21. The years have fallen like a leaf from a tree in fall.
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    3. DMI+ WILL CROSS ABOVE DMI- AT THAT TIME OR WITHIN A COUPLE DAYS, WHEN THE DMI+ STAYS ABOVE THE DMI- AND THE ADX line starts to point up, [this is a uptrending stock price] the reverse is true of a falling price.
    4.Now with the 12dma above the 30dma, {check the expanding daily volume, bullish signal} – keep your STOP ADJUSTED EVERY 3-5 DAYS OPEN FOR 30 DAYS, USING THE PREVIOUS 5TH DAY LOW PRICE,
    5. this strategy will keep you in the stock with a profit over the coming months, if you are stopped out, buy back in using the same strategy, or find another to trade.
    6. Once a SP is up over 50% it is likely to back track about 1/3 and continue up to a new high about as high as the previous uptrend when first purchased.
    7 Learn to trust the stops, let the market buy you out and time you into the trades, The same goes for the indexes, if they are bullish play long, if they are bearish learn to short the same way. ie:Stock that have risen more than 100% in the past 12 months,
    8. Remember the objective for the market maker is to make money daily. What is know as churning an account, if you were a broker.
    9 A market maker churns his/her account minute by minute, dont interfear with there strategy, just go along for the ride.

    10. Learn to massage your account taking time to wait for the signals,

    11. The fastest money is to follow the daily or weekly volume leaders for those signals,

    12, Patience is a virtue, stroke it lightly and it will make you money.

    13. Remember not to play with money, it has a serious side, once it is gone it is hard to replace.
    14, How much to invest, per trade, 1/4 of a months gross paycheck,
    or $1500. which ever is higher.
    15. Remember a 1000 shares at $20 is the same as 100,000 shares @ .20 cents.
    16. Caveat, stay away from any company that does not produce CASH FLOW. If that company relies on hype or financings, for cash, this is outright speculation, so beware of the widow maker.

    17. Never take control of your account, using the above strategy will allow the stock price movement to take your stop out.

    18. The least profitable trades for me have been consistently taking control of the wheel and pedal…
    19. Stay with a stock if the 30 day moving average stays above the 200dma.

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  68. Hi there, I recently noticed a lot of commotion about high frequency trade, though here’s a counter statement.
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    Not George Clooney.

  69. Computers do not control the markets, certain humans created the algorithms per order of the persons that pursue certain objectives, hence not different than that a physical person on a trade floor can at a moment’s notice change tactics, at the push of a button another algorithm with a different tactic can be activated. The selection of what algorithm would need to be activated could also occur automatic though comprehend that humans do not relinquish control. This website appears a lot like fear mongering, without true knowledge, if not a marxist style abuse of people with of a lack of real sufficient detailed knowledge. I mean, all of your posts debunked with two counterstatements?! doesn’t feel nice doesn’t it?! You should also notice the big short movie, then comprehend that they knew before others. The announced investigations never found anything illegal, the movie with george clooney will not change reality either. The perception of reality isn’t reality, reality is reality! Just comprehend you’re not fast enough.
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    Not George Clooney.

  70. Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point.

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